I just had the opportunity to watch Eli Manning's first game as an NFL starting quarterback. I have to say, I can't remember being this content after a Giants' loss in a long time.

Yes, they lost. Yes, the first half of the game was not pretty. But in the second half, the Giants -- both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball -- completely outplayed the a better Falcons team.

In my opinion, Eli played a great game for a first start, and a very good game for any other quarterback. Take away the 10 dropped passes in the first half, and this is a very different story. He showed a poise and comfort in the pocket that I haven't seen from a Giants' quarterback since, well, a guy named Phil Simms.

He played smarter than Kurt Warner has played all season.

Hey, it's his first game. We hardly got a view of what he can do. But I was impressed. I'm anxious to see him play more.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 1:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Michelle Goldberg posits in Salon today (subscription required) that liberals, shut out of federal government decisionmaking, may be forced to pursue a "states' rights" political philosophy out of convenience (or desperation, depending how you look at it).

"For now, of course, secession remains an escapist fantasy. But its resonance with liberals points to some modest potential for constructive political action. After all, as the South knows well, there are interim measures between splitting the nation and submitting to a culture pushed by a hostile federal government. Having lost any say in how the nation is run, liberals may be about to discover states' rights -- for better or worse. While Democrats have rarely had less power on a national level, they will still be major players in cities and states.

She has an interesting point. If you can envision a future where liberal causes are under siege at a national level, or, for instance, Roe v. Wade is overturned, supporters of these causes would be well advised to get organised at the state level in advance. The irony, as the author points out, is that states' rights arguments have traditionally been used by conservatives in red states to stop the liberal tide from washing over them.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This is clearly not my year. Early NFL season, I'm focused on the doomed election. New York Football Giants come out of the gate at 4-1, taking out some good teams along the way. I wake up out of my election coma to find the Giants can't beat the Bears, their two best defensive linemen are out for the season, and their reclamation-project quarterback has gone back to the shitter. Bill Simmons sums it up nicely on ESPN.com:

17. NY Giants (5-3) -- Not only did they lose their two best d-lineman last week, but the rest of the league finally remembered that Kurt Warner reacts to blitzes like a Yorkshire terrier during an earthquake. A heavy favorite for "The decent first half team that drops like a stone in the second half of the season" honors.

Warner is a dead man walking, but does Eli Manning offer any more hope? I don't think so.

We'll see starting today, when they face the weakling Arizona Cardinals. I'm not a betting man, but Giants are giving 2 in Arizona. Take the Cards.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 2:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

I don't know why, exactly, but this site really moved me.

http://www.sorryeverybody.com/

P.S. Thanks to Doug for passing this URL along

Posted by ElectricOrange at 1:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Salon.com today, Rebecca Traister suggests that instead of getting mad at red-state America, we get even. How? She proposes a 10-point programme to aggravate and alienate Bush voters, and since Salon is subsccription only, I'll list the 10 suggestions below.

Personally, I suggest extremely public combinations of the 10, such as doing 8, then doing 1 in the parking lot while doing 8, followed by doing 10, if necessary.

Have your own ideas? Suggest one in the comments.

1. Have extremely deviant sex.
2. Get a divorce even if you don't need one.
3. Donate a banned book to your local public library.
4. Go see a pretentious French film.
5. Quit listening to NPR and download some internet porn.
6. Express your creativity with abstract or pornographic art.
7. Take a nature walk while the environment is still relatively intact.
8. Boycott Wal-Mart.
9. Start drinking and/or smoking. If you've quit, start again!
10. Exercise your right to choose... before it's taken away.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

I posed a question to my good friend Dadblog the other day in an e-mail, to which he wisely replied via his blog.

The question: Is this (election) defeat the ultimate discrediting of the Clinton/Blair new left?

Dadblog says no, suggesting that what Clinton/Blair understand (and, consequently, Gore, Kerry, and the current UK Conservative party don't) is the importance of balancing individual freedoms with collective responsibility.

An interesting point, although I see it differently.

In 1992, as an American, I was very excited about Bill Clinton because, well, he was a Democrat, and after 12 years of Reagan and Bush (and far more depressingly, Mondale and Dukakis), he could win. I was willing to look past the fact that his progressive agenda wasn't quite progressive, because at least it was more progressive than the Republican agenda at the time. Clinton embraced (or co-opted, if you prefer) key pieces of the Republican economic programme that were controversial even for Republicans 12 years before, while pushing foward key pieces of a progressive social policy.

Good enough, and for 8 years it worked. But something happened during those 8 years... Clinton managed (a) to harden the right-wing political base by just being himself, and (b) acquiesce on progressive economic policy to the point that these progressive values were completely marginalised in American politics.

Result: the American political spectrum as a whole moved to the right, such that what we call a liberal today is about the same as a conservative would have been in, say, 1981. To illustrate this point, consider that John Kerry's economic policy proposals in this election were to the right of those put forward by George H. W. Bush during his first Presidential campaign in 1980. There was no sane progressive alternative in this election season (Dean: not sane, not progressive. Nader: patently insane and just wrong).

And, yes, I'm saying it: Clinton not only allowed that to happen, he made it happen. Clinton lent final validation to Reagan's agenda. The center-left coalition never really existed, to the extent that there was very little left in it at all. Clinton's was a cult of personality, not of policy. Otherwise, how can you explain the fact that after 8 years of peace and prosperity, voters were not keen to sign right back up for those policies?

I'll cede the point that Clinton and Blair succeeded by balancing the line between freedom and responsibility. But this is intrinsically a political accomplishment, and not a policy accomplishment. It's a compromise, and one that is perfectly reasonable if you're politically cornered. If, for instance, you've witnessed a cascade of conservatism, you're desperate, and you're standing in front of the dam plugging holes with chewing gum, then why not be strategic and choose the lesser evil. I'm talking US '92 and UK '97.

But those successful compromises have cost the progressive agenda dearly. Progressives have been completely sold out by the Democrats. Many, like me, are wondering whether it was worth it to become Clintonistas just for the sake of winning. On the British side, the many cracks that have developed within the Labour caucus since the Iraq debacle seem to indicate a similar level of soul searching... although Labour benefits from the fact that the Tories have displayed an unimaginable level of political ineptitude.

As an American and a registered Democrat, I'm asking who in the country -- who in the party -- is going to represent my point of view?

UPDATE:Dadblog replies, suggesting that the rightward swing (regarding market philosophies) was inevitable and necessary. Perhaps I oversimplify his argument, but you can read it for yourself.

Again, I disagree, in part. Without a question, nobody wants unions setting policy, nor do they want high inflation and crumbling infrastructure. But that is not what the debate is really about. The debate is about the level to which we look after the least fortunate, and the level to which we are taxed to pay for it. And if you take the so-called moral issues out of the equation, this single most important manifestation of the move to the right is the public's complete unwillingness to pay tax (at least in the US) in exchange for services provided by government.

'Tis very easy to vote for a tax cut, because the tax cuts take place first. But then only later, when faced with the economic disaster of permanent mounting deficits, do definitely follow the programme cuts. And very few people have managed to connect the dots on this one.

Where is the "collective responsibility" in pushing through tax cut after tax cut? Where are the "individual freedoms" for those who are left behind when the government programmes are eventually shut?

This is the progressive agenda that has been shut out of American politics.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)

I'm following the Giants game tonight, and I can't help but draw a parallel between election day and their season trajectory. The early returns seemed to look good, but as time goes on my team's chances are looking worse and worse.

Chicago is one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Giants can't seem to do a thing against them. 5 turnovers (including 2 Warner fumbles and 2 Warner interceptions)? Barring a last-minute miracle, they'll be calling for Eli this week.

Just good enough to make you start believing. Still not good enough. Same Old Giants.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 1:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Blogger John Ellis posts his rationale ("Why Kerry Lost") for why Kerry didn't turn out to be the real deal, after all.

I'm not 100% sure I agree with him, particularly about Edwards being "Quayle Lite," but it makes for an interesting read.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 12:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Had a night out tonight at Kill The DJ. So brilliant, it almost made me forget about what's-his-name. You may have noticed my earlier reference to the "(How To) Kill The DJ" CD series. Well dancing to it live and in person was even better than I had imagined. Funky, dirty, consistently inventive mixing by tonight's DJs, The Glimmer Twins. I wish I'd had the fortitude to stay for the other 2 sets that were to follow, but a week of non-stop politics has left me out of gas.

But, fortunately for you readers, not out of hot air.

If you're interested, Kill The DJ is the first Thursday night of every month, midnight at Le Pulp, 25 Blvd. Poissoniere, Paris 2eme. I heartily recommend it.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 4:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Jeff Jarvis made his pledge, well here's mine:

I pledge to hold a vigil, alone if I have to, counting down each day until the end of the Bush presidency.

I pledge to be a divider, not a uniter.

I pledge to keep the discourse at whatever level I see fit, for as long as I see fit to keep it there, and stick my tongue out at anybody who complains.

I pledge to be no more restrained than Tom DeLay at an abortion clinic, no more reasonable than Bill Bennett being turned down for a marker at the MGM Grand, and no more civil than Dick Cheney on the floor of the Senate.

I pledge to remind anyone who asks that I did not vote for the guy, so please please please stop asking me what the hell is wrong with us Americans.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 4:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm not saying that Americans are dying, right now, for a liberal alternative. What I'm saying is that the battle is for their hearts and minds -- it's not an enfranchisement or vote counting issue. For people to vote for you, they have to be voting *for* you. They have to believe in what you believe in. And that's just it -- they don't. If you want to have a liberal agenda, you just have to make more liberals, or the numbers are going to keep turning out this way. The numbers, for Democrats, aren't there.

I think the most instructive thing in the whole election hearkens back to what Karl Rove said after they lost the popular vote in 2000. He said that 4 million white evangelicals didn't turn out for them in 2000. Well guess what -- he lost by 500,000 then and won by about 3,500,000 now. That sure smells like 4 million white evangelicals to me.

We've been living a lie for 4 years -- we thought the popular vote numbers in 2000 reflected a small but real Democratic majority that would roar like a lion this time around. We were wrong. Dead wrong. We're shell-shocked today because we can no longer believe the big lie -- that we are the silent majority.

My biggest regret in this whole affair is that I feel like I sold out what I really believe because I thought somebody less anathema to my political views could beat the guy who is complete anathema. And for what? For a fantasy that there is some kind of center-left majority in the US that could hold off the Devil.

There *is* a devil, but there's no center-left majority in the United States. And the Democrats are going to either (a) keep losing, or (b) occasionally elect an elephant in donkey's clothing, until (and if) the said center-left majority exists.

Can it happen? If George Bush can be re-elected President of the United States, then ANYTHING can happen.

Here's Dadblog again, with some heartfelt incredulity.

Here's an interesting piece from Timothy Noah at Slate about what the Dems shouldn't do. Please note, he has no idea what they *should* do, although Slate also has a Bill Saletan piece with some suggestions. I disagree with Saletan's conclusion ("make Edwards the next Clinton!"), but it's interesting all the same.

On a side note, though, it will also be very interesting to see what happens to the Republican party over the next 4 years. There's a war going on over there between the God people and the libertarian/fiscal conservative wing of the party... they just managed to band-aid it together for the purpose of this election. We've already started to see the first fissures with Specter's comment about Roe v. Wade yesterday. When do Rudy and McCain start moving to the center in advance of their '08 bids? Will Bush be able to command the troop loyalty he's enjoyed with nothing to hang over people's heads? With DeLay in trouble, will discipline suffer in the House?

Not to say that it will matter.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 6:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm more than disappointed. I'm disillusioned. I'm distraught.

I don't think, as many pundits are saying, that this is some kind of grand opportunity for Democratic soul searching, either. I just think the Democratic party, as currently constituted, has no reason to exist anymore. The more I think about it, and admittedly this is Wednesday Morning QB-ing, the Kerry campaign really didn't offer a liberal alternative to Bush. The Democratic party really has become a paler version of the Reagan-era Republican party, and I think that's a reflection of the sorry state of Los Estados Unidos. Clinton was a personality, which was why he won. But Clinton, in effect, was wrong. Clinton, in effect, was a Reagan Republican. Clinton may have set the Democrats back 30 years by rendering them irrelevant.

It's not a blue-state/red-state thing. It's an America thing, and the fact is that a fairly clear majority of Americans are way out to the right of you and me politically. "Liberal" is as loaded as "Nigger." I don't think it's media manipulation anymore -- this is what people actually think, feel, and believe. They're real people, they get to vote, and they outnumber us. Really.

So, from now on, the battle is not for red states or blue states -- the blue states are all bound to turn red real soon. The battle is for the very hearts and minds of Americans. The battle is for America itself. If the Democratic party is to once again make itself relevant, it needs to develop a truly progressive platform and convince Americans to stop being so damned conservative.

It's as simple as that.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 4:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

So now, it's over. George Bush gets 4 more years. Kerry may try something or other with provisional ballots, but he's going to have a really hard time with it. So it's over. And I'm accepting it. Which is hard, because I hate it.

People are going to tell me that life will go on, and no doubt it will. Chances are we'll get together again in 4 years and do this all again. Yes America is divided, but it's not 50-50. It is not the Great Society that Johnson proclaimed. America has rejected the New Deal, and selected a Newer Deal. It's a deal of conservatism and avarice, of fear and militarism. It's a different ideal of America's place in the world than the relatively humble might I grew up with.

We're going to hear a lot in the next days and weeks about how the Democratic party lost America. If you ask me, that's bullshit. If you ask me, America lost itself. America kept the pride, but lost the compassion. America kept the wings, but lost the halo. Americans want to have their today without having to worry about tomorrow.

Draw the parallels that you will. History offers plenty, and so does literature if you want to make the stretch. I worry about it, in my heart, because I am now the other. I'm not quite sure what America has become, but it sure doesn't look like me, and it doesn't feel like mine.

I'm way to the left of Bush, and I'm frankly way to the left of Kerry. I bought into the notion that if I compromised my principles, I could meet up with a similarly compromising group somewhere in the center and defeat the greater evil. But, in America, that center no longer exists.

So, I'm dispirited. I sold myself out and I lost. I hit the exacta. And before I know what that means, I'm going to have to sleep it off.

Maybe I'll wake up to a miracle, but I think this nightmare's too real.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 7:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's about 1:15pm in Paris, 7:15am on the east coast of the United States. It's election day. The polls are now meaningless. It all comes down now to me and Wolf Blitzer.

I'll be obsessively watching CNN, all day long, observing a one-man vigil in front of my television from now until we have a new president. Let's hope we have one tonight.

Update: 1:29pm CET
Lloyd weighs in on why it's important Kerry wins.

Update: 1:35pm CET
Already long lines in Miami-Dade and Pennsylvania at 7:30 local time. Let's hope they stay and wait... Also Don Imus is apparently the only one outside the campaigns who's willing to go out on a limb and make a prediction: he calls it for Kerry. Everybody else, the pundits on CNN, Chris Matthews, even Gallup (for the first time in lah-lah-lah years) is too afraid.

Update: 2:13pm CET
Long lines in Palm Beach County too. Also, there have been several absentee vote challenges in Palm Beach County. Hope they let mine through.

Random Thought: 2:29pm CET
I don't claim to have an enormous depth of experience in political reporting, but once way back in 1992 I had the privilege to be in the CNN election headquarters during the New Hampshire primary. So just for the sake of information, here's what I learned:

1. The TV anchors generally know who won (if not by how much) by mid-afternoon (if not earlier).
2. If you read between the lines in what they're saying, they'll generally start tipping the public off shortly thereafter with statements about "mood" in the various campaign headquarters.
3. The non-horserace exit polling statistics cited by CNN political analyst Bill Schneider also tend to foreshadow who they think the winner will be -- even if they won't call the state for a given candidate. Today, pay particular attention to turnout numbers, particularly in the rainy midwest.

None of this may be relevant today, as this election is so close that the exit polling may not reveal a clear winner. But if it's looking good for one candidate or the other, you won't need to wait for the media to call the winner -- they'll let it slip.

Update: 2:52pm CET
The first anecdotal blog reports are coming in on voter turnout. Jeff Jarvis reports on low voter turnout in Republican-dominated western NJ. Megan McArdle reports on Instapundit about high voter turnout at her precinct in highly Democratic New York City. CNN shows long lines in Clayton County, GA.

Update: 3:10pm CET
Could you imagine getting up at 7am to vote and then finding Dick Cheney standing on line next to you? That's what voters in Wilson, Wyoming woke up to this morning. If the GOP really wanted to scare black voters away in Ohio and Florida, they should have just sent the VP.

Update: 3:16pm CET
Kerry's speaking in Wisconsin, in his barn jacket. At least he ditched the Red Sox cap from last night -- what was he thinking with that? Yeah, he's a Sox fan, and yeah, that's fine. But (a) why do Bush's job for him and advertise that you're from Taxachussets, and (b) could anything possibly look less Presidential than hiding your face with a baseball cap?

Update: 3:35pm CET
CNN reports high turnout in Ohio. The polling place they showed in Canton, OH had no line, and it isn't raining.

Update: 4:06pm CET
Dirty Tricks, Part 1: Reports from Franklin County, Ohio that flyers are circulating saying "Republicans Vote Today, Democrats Vote Wednesday." I'd hate to think about who's going to fall for that one, but awfully encouraging, isn't it? Also, more and longer lines in Miami-Dade.

Update: 4:16pm CET
Palm Beach County, FL reporting no lines at the moment. Carlos Watson says on CNN International the election is going to turn on which voters turn out. Did he come up with this all by himself? Does he get paid for this?

Update: 4:20pm CET
John Edwards is on the ground in Florida, pressing the flesh in Tampa. Long lines in Wisconsin, but where in Wisconsin? Madison? The Milwaukee suburbs? Sheboygan? This information matters. Give it up.

Update: 4:31pm CET
CNN goes to WorldSport, so I go to see how the other half lives. For the next half-hour, it's Fox Fox Fox. Fox reports that Pennsylvania GOP are going to court because 4 voting machines in Philadephia had 1,500 votes recorded this morning before polls opened. Sounds like a red herring, but we'll see how this develops or if any news outlets other than the GOP's voice box pick it up.

Update: 4:38pm CET
Fox now reports of "unconfirmed" voting irregularities in Minnesota where MoveOn.org apparently are handing out materials within the 100-foot politicking free zone Minnesota law requires. Again, this is unconfirmed and the source is the state GOP. Same as the Pennsylvania story. We'll see if there's a 3rd incident of this, which would change my opinion from coincidence to pattern.

Update: 4:46pm CET
Fox turns again to the "major voting irregularity" in Philadelphia, which is as yet unconfirmed and unreported by CNN, either of the Philadelphia newspaper websites, or the AP's most recent voting irregularities story. Fox reports now (3rd report in 15 minutes) that the Philadelphia District Attorney's office denies that any irregular votes were counted.

Hallelujah: 4:58pm CET
I can finally switch back to CNN. @#$#@ Fox.

Update: 5:19pm CET
Taking a break, back soon.

Update: 5:40pm CET
Back. Nevada starts voting, no lines are visible. CNN picks up the Philadelphia voting machine story, noting the GOP is determined to take it to court. AP reports record turnout.

Update: 5:54pm CET
Howard Dean and his chipmunk face now on CNN. No new info here. How this guy ever thought he could be elected president is beyond me -- maybe he figured if W could be elected, he could. Gotta love self-delusion.

Update: 6:01pm CET
Kerry on the ground in Bedford, Massachusetts to have his election day ritual and vote. Palm Beach County looks calm, no major lines visible. Voters compliment the touch-screen machines without knowing if their votes got registered.

Update: 6:08pm CET
CNN sums up voting irregularities, including the alleged Philly pre-votes, the flyer story from Ohio, and other misleading flyers and/or letters in South Carolina and Wisconsin. Not too much detail.

Significant Update: 6:11pm CET
CNN gives the first clue about turnout, saying this is shaping up to be one of the highest voter turnouts in recent memory. This is significant, because a big turnout is widely believed to favor Kerry. Still too early to read anything major between the lines, but I estimate we should start seeing revealing hints about Eastern time zone states (OH, FL, MI, PA) by about 3pm EST/9pm CET.

Update: 6:26pm CET
Long lines in Nashville.

Update: 6:44pm CET
Rudy Giuliani carries Bush's water (think he's selling his soul to firm up support for 2008? maybe?) and implies there would have been more terrorist attacks if not for W. What a waste.

Update: 7:01pm CET
CNN shows video of long lines and -- get this -- camping out in Florida, Georgia, and Colorado.

Update: 7:08pm CET
CNN provides an update on the Philadelphia voting machine controversy. Governor and City Commissioner contend that the GOP reports are in error and refuse to impound the voting machines in question. Reports are starting to come out about difficulties in verifying voter registrations that don't appear on precinct rolls. CNN earlier had an anecdotal report about a newly naturlised American who left the polling place when poll workers couldn't get through to the central office to verify. A Pennsylvania voter had to use her own cell phone to get through to the office. Kerry arrives at Boston state house to vote.

Update: 7:16pm CET
Google News shows 2,570 election-related stories. If you start now, you should be able to read them all by 2008.

Update: 7:18pm CET
Bloomberg.com reports wait times from 40 minutes to 2 1/2 hours at some polling stations.

Update: 7:28pm CET
CNN reports there may be other news going on in the world today. I'm not interested. Pizza finally gets here. By the way, has anybody noticed a pattern with all these legal challenges (like the Ohio registration challengers) where the Democrats always win the first round and then get overturned by a Federal appeals court? Happened in 2000, it's happening now.

Update: 7:34pm CET
CNN reporter with the Kerry campaign talks of a behind-the-scenes confidence. Possibly meaningless, possibly not.

Update: 7:59pm CET
Slate's Jack Shafer basically says what I said above about what the discerning viewer can read between the lines about exit poll results. Slate, to its credit, is dispensing with the BS and giving the exit poll results directly to its readers as they become available. So we may start getting a good idea of what's going on fairly early on.

Update: 8:17pm CET
No new news at the moment. The "look at everybody voting" stories seem to have pretty much run their course, and we are all waiting for the first exit polling results. Some of us less patiently than normal human beings. I'm sure I've heard every one of these stories on CNN at least 30 times.

Significant Update: 8:21pm CET
Boom. The first exit polling info has started to creep out, with a source none other than the Drudge Report reporting early exit polling looking promising for Kerry, at least in Ohio and Florida. Personally, I don't put that much stock in Drudge, and you never know. But now that the dam has been broken, expect more exit polling to follow.

Update: 8:28pm CET
Here's the quote from Drudge's website, take it for what it's worth:
"Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE..."

Update: 8:35pm CET
Back to Fox, due to CNN's daily business report. Fox reports 20% of Florida's registered voters voted early. The exit pollers are taking early voters into account in Florida, but this could have an effect on the validity of the exit polling numbers.

Update: 8:38pm CET
Fox reports there was an attempt to tamper with the voting machine by a Green Party voter in a South Philadelphia district. This report is confirmed by Philadelphia police. Democrats accuse PA GOP of politicking with the complaints about the "prevoted" machines reported earlier today.

Analysis: 8:44pm CET
File this under "Duh," but it sure looks as if the Pennsylvania Republican Party is scrambling to ensure they have lawsuit grounds.

Very Significant Update: 9:01pm CET
OK, so Drudge posts numbers. They're early numbers, and some of them look like very big spreads, but right now it shows Kerry leading by 4 or less in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Michigan. However, the early data also show a 20-point Kerry lead in Pennsylvania, which is flatly impossible, 18 points in Minnesota (which is just about impossible), and 16 points in New Hampshire (no way). Either way, this has to be encouraging for the Kerry campaign -- better to be impossibly ahead than impossibly behind.

Update: 9:16pm CET
Drudge now notes the original data had a polling gender spread of 59% women to 41% men. This could account for the out-of-kilter margins, but we'll see. I sincerely doubt that was the spread in all states.

Update: 9:26pm CET
CBS Marketwatch quotes traders speculating the 70-point pre-closing dive of the Dow today may be due to the Drudge exit poll leak showing Kerry doing unexpectedly well.

Update: 9:32pm CET
Back to Fox as CNN replays its World Business Report. For those of you who are wondering, I get CNN, Fox, and CNBC over here, but CNBC doesn't switch to election coverage until midnight or so. So when CNN goes to sports or business, all I get is Fox.

Update: 9:34pm CET
Fox reports that an Ohio voter, Sarah White, has filed suit against the Ohio Secretary of State in Federal court because she didn't receive her absentee ballot and wasn't allowed to vote a provisional ballot at her polling place. This is believed to be the first voter lawsuit of the day.

Update: 9:50pm CET
OK, so Slate posts its first exit poll numbers. Surprisingly, the Minnesota figure of Kerry +18 parses with the earlier Drudge report. However, Slate's numbers show Kerry only +1 in both Ohio and Florida. Several news organisations have said they would not call a state if the margin was within 1%. These numbers also show Kerry within 2 in North Carolina. Now that would be a shock.

Update: 9:55pm CET
A concerned reader informs ElectricOrange that John Kerry contracts are trading at 56, versus 42 for Bush, at present on Tradesports.com. That's nowhere near certainty, but it is an interesting anecdote. It could also reflect previous holders of Bush contracts hedging. The Iowa Electronic Markets also show Kerry ahead, 50-47. The Iowa Markets got 2000 very wrong, I should note.

Worth Noting: 10:21pm CET
If early exit polls are like early returns, they will tend to come from cities and, thus, overstate the Democratic vote. I have no authority on this, but it seems to make sense.

Update: 10:24pm CET
Actual headline from the Actual Yahoo home page: "World Riveted By US Presidential Election." Duh! Who writes these things?

Extremely Significant Update: 10:36pm CET
A reliable source in a very good position to know reports that Republican pollster Frank Luntz has just called his clients, predicting a blowout for Kerry. What "blowout" means, and what he's basing his projection on, I couldn't tell ya.

Update: 10:44pm CET
The same reliable source quotes a Republican pollster saying that the Senate races are breaking for the GOP except in Florida and Colorado, including a defeat for Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD).

A Word Of Caution: 10:52pm CET
Exit polls are just that: polls. They are not actual votes. Early exit polling relies on an extremely small sample. And the poll numbers you're seeing now have not been balanced by their interpretive models. Remember when you read them that you should take them with a severe grain of salt. That said, in about 5 minutes, you can officially start watching CNN to see what you can read between the lines. By 5pm EST, exit polling data from the east coast (which includes FL, OH, MI, and PA) should be significant enough to start drawing conclusions from. That said, the conclusions may still be "too close to call," and may remain that way well into the night, until the real votes are counted.

Update: 11:07pm CET
CNN's Judy Woodruff bending over backwards to explain safeguards against wrong calls, saying they won't call any state until all polls are closed in that state, that they're focusing on being right, not necessarily first. Another duh. Do you think anybody in 2000 wanted to call it wrong? Did anybody want to call it wrong twice? It was an honest mistake, and it did not affect the election -- only our perception of it. We are mature adults, we should take everything TV tells us with a grain of salt.

Update: 11:10pm CET
I hereby predict the District of Columbia will go for Kerry. Whoop-de-doo!

Update: 11:15pm CET
CNN International goes to Bill Schneider. Here's the key piece of info: 1 in 7 voters are "new" voters. This, if true, plays directly into the Kerry campaign's strategy.

Update: 11:26pm CET
Tradesports now has Kerry trading at 70.

Update: 11:48pm CET
CNN is playing up the French rooting for Kerry. Duh! That's a real scoop. But for you French-hating Americans out there, and you know who you are, the French don't hate you back. 70% of French people have a positive opinion of Americans. The figure is somewhat lower with regard to President Bush.

Update: 11:54pm CET
Lloyd just posted Kerry-gasmic Zogby electoral vote projections under the comments section of this entry. If he reads this, please post or e-mail me the source for that.

Update: 12:00am CET
Never mind, I just found the Zogby info. As of 5pm EST, they project the electoral college at 311 for Kerry. Click here to see the breakdown, which I'm certain will shift over time this evening. Worth noting, Zogby still predicts Bush winning the popular vote.

Update: 12:02am CET
Schneider's back on CNN. Turnout is way way way up, he says. 15% did not vote last time. But demographically, turnout is up across the board -- which may shoot the Kerry turnout advantage in the foot.

BETWEEN THE LINES: 12:08am CET
CNN Int'l reporter at Bush HQ reports "confidence" from the Kerry campaign and "matter-of-fact" from the Bush campaign. Read between the lines.

Update: 12:14am CET
Wonkette posts new polls showing Kerry up by 2 in FL, OH. Also claims there are problems with exit polls in several states (neither OH nor FL is one of the several, but PA is). Also Kerry is running even in Nevada.

Update: 12:31am CET
Finally a break from Richard Quest barking on CNN. Viva Brokaw!

Random Thought: 12:32am CET
Wouldn't it be awesome to see Bush on the Ex-Presidents sketch on SNL's cartoon funhouse?

Update: 12:40am CET
Slate has some interesting stuff, including Chris Suellentrop's transcript of comments by Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart from this afternoon. Also a speculative piece by Timothy Noah about whether W would run again in 2008 if he loses tonight. Premature, definitely. Remember in 2000, everybody thought Gore would go again.

BETWEEN THE LINES: 12:43am CET
NBC exit polls report 50%-47% wrong track-right track numbers. But Bush is over the crucial 50% on job approval (51%) according to their exit polling. This suggests it's closer than previous exit polls have indicated... at least as the nationwide popular vote is concerned. State-by-state breakdowns would be really instructive here.

POLLS CLOSE: 1:00am CET
Polls have now closed in seven states representing 58 electoral votes: GA (15-Bush) IN (11-Bush) KY (8-Bush) VT (3-Kerry)... NH, SC, VA too close to call.

Very Significant Update: 1:06am CET
A Federal judge in Philadelphia has barred counting of Philly absentee ballots until tomorrow morning at 9:30am. NBC reports tens of thousands of ballots may be affected, which will very likely keep Pennsylvania from being called until tomorrow. This could be huge, as Philadelphia voters break 5-1 Democratic. In other words, we could go to bed with Bush looking ahead -- and with a much better hand to play.

POLLS CLOSE: 1:30am CET
Polls close in WV (5-Bush), others NC, OH too close to call.

No Update: 1:42am CET
Only thing of interest between poll closings is Bill Schneider. WHERE IS BILL SCHNEIDER? Both Ed Gillespie and Terry McAuliffe are idiots. Wolf asks: "How are you feeling?" As if they're going to say "You know, Wolfie, I feel like shit. We're cooked."

Update: 1:50am CET
Gillespie starts to bark about Dem dirty tricks on CNN. Trying to gather support for lawsuits maybe? MAYBE?!?

Update: 1:55am CET
Novak says on CNN he's been on the phone with GOP staffers in Ohio and they're very pessimistic.

POLLS CLOSE: 2:00am CET
AL (9-Bush), CT (7-Kerry), DE (3-Kerry), DC (3-Kerry), FL, IL (21-Kerry), KS, ME (3-Kerry/1 too close), MD (10-Kerry), MA (12-Kerry), MI, MS, MO, NJ (15-Kerry), OK (7-Bush), PA, TN (11-Bush), TX

Update: 2:12am CET
Just watching. Doubt there's anything at this point I know that you don't. But VIVA NJ!!! My old home state brings home the goods for Kerry.

POLLS CLOSE: 2:31am CET
AR - Too Close To Call

VIRGINIA, S.C. CALLED: 2:33am CET
VA (13-Bush), SC (8-Bush)

Update: 2:35am CET
Allegheny County, PA extends voting hours by 1.5 hours.

N.C. CALLED: 2:40am CET
NC (15-Bush)

Update: 2:50am CET
I'm going blind. I've been staring back and forth between the computer and the TV for nigh on 14 hours now. Maybe it's time for a coffee before anything else happens. Sleep later.

POLLS CLOSE: 3:00am CET
TX (34-Bush), ND (3-Bush), KS (6-Bush), SD (3-Bush), Wyoming (3-Bush), NE (4-Bush/1 Too Close To Call), NY (31-Kerry), RI (4-Kerry)

Update: 3:12am CET
Bob Woodward talking on CNN. Exit polls favor Kerry in OH, FL, PA, but Woodward says central FL precincts are bucking exit poll reporting. Wisconsin is REALLY close according to exit polls.

Update: 3:30am CET
OK, I'm starting to get worried. This is feeling a lot like 2000 when Gore looked ahead early and then fell behind. All the Republicans on TV seem awfully optimistic about Pennsylvania, but the polling data is WAY in Kerry's favor. Could we please not have this happen again?

LA, MS CALLED: 3:32am CET
Louisiana (9-Bush), Mississippi (6-Bush)

Update: 3:36am CET
Gergen talking about what I was worrying about on CNN. Actual results are bucking the exit polls, giving hope to the GOP. I shoulda had a valium instead of a coffee.

Update: 3:43am CET
Wonkette reports Florida looks like Bush.

Update: 3:49am CET
CNN reports Bush to make a statement to rally voters out west. Maybe this is all just a GOP charm offensive. Bush live on CNN right now. Says he's "very upbeat." This could be desperation, could be confidence. Me? SWEATING BALLS.

NE CALLED: 3:52am CET
Nebraska's last congressional dist called for Bush.

ELECTRICORANGE PREDICTION: 3:57am CET
Florida won't be called tonight as a result of absentee ballots. It's going to be closer than the number of ballots left to count.

POLLS CLOSE: 3:59am CET
IA (too close), NV (too close), UT (5-Bush), MT (too close)

Update: 4:04am CET
Lockhart on live right now, says he believes Kerry will take NH and OH. But they cut him off when he started to talk about Florida.

Update: 4:09am CET
William Saletan at Slate breaks down possibilities at this point. Thanks for talking me down, if only a bit.

AR CALLED: 4:12am CET
Arkansas (6-Bush)

MO CALLED: 4:14am CET
Missouri (11-Bush)

Update: 4:28am CET
I'm tired. Coffee already wearing off. Shaking in my boots. There's nothing to read between the lines. I don't know what's going on. But I'll tell you this, if it's Bush again, with the GOP gains in the house and senate that look likely at this point, we're in for deep trouble indeed. Deep, deep trouble.

PA CALLED: 4:51am CET
Pennsylvania (21-Kerry)

POLLS CLOSE: 5:00am CET
CA (55-Kerry), ID (4-Bush), OR, NV, WA too close

Analysis: 5:13am CET
Well, Florida looks pretty impossible at the moment for Kerry. There just don't seem to be enough votes left outstanding for him to close the gap. Ohio looks better, and so now where this really comes down to is Iowa and Wisconsin. They're both really close. Minnesota: close. Michigan: still not called. New Hampshire: still not called. Me: still awake, but barely. I'm punchy and emotional.

Update: 5:41am CET
Still here. Still sweating. Florida going to Bush for sure.

Update: 5:45am CET
Best news in a while: Kerry goes ahead in Wisconsin. Where is Cuyahoga County, OH?

FL, WA, AZ CALLED 5:55am CET
CNN hasn't called them, but everybody else has. Florida (27-Bush), Washington (11-Kerry), Arizona (10-Bush)

Update: 6:07am CET
Kerry just pulled a lot closer in Ohio, with 25% left to report. This is a good sign.

Update: 6:18am CET
Still a lot of Cuyahoga County votes to count, but Bush just pulled ahead again in Ohio. This is a bad sign.

CO, MT CALLED: 6:26am CET
Colorado (9-Bush), Montana (3-Bush)

OR CALLED: 6:40am CET
Oregon (7-Kerry)

Update: 6:41am CET
At this point, I'm not convinced Kerry can win Ohio. He's down 130,000 and has stayed down that far for a while. He needs votes from Cleveland -- more than are left. Maybe there's a miracle. But I can't see it. And there's no longer a route for Kerry that doesn't go through Ohio. At this point, it looks like we've got 4 more years -- and with a popular vote margin of 2-4% to go along with his electoral college victory. I can't believe it.

POLLS CLOSE: 7:00am CET
AK (3-Bush)

IT'S OVER: BUSH WINS
There's no sense in prolonging this or waiting for the numbers to line up. Bush won, and it appears he won fair and square. Turnout was high, and he still won with over 50% of the vote. I'm going to bed, and if there's a miracle, then so be it.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 1:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (8)

Sorry for the delay in writing, I've been in Morocco, lacking a reliable internet connection.

But why have I been in Morocco? For one of the most incredible parties I've ever attended.

To understand, you'd have to know my friend Dana. A while ago, she asked me about what I thought she should do for her 30th birthday celebration. Dana, like me, moves around quite a bit. And, like me, she has friends scattered all around the globe. Many of whom she doesn't get to see. So her goal for the party was to bring together her friends from over the years for a special event.

She had been considering having a party at a club in Paris. So I, offhandedly, suggested maybe she try something that reflected her personality, something that would be truly memorable for everybody involved... like maybe to have a party in Marrakech, where she has a house.

Man, did I not expect that to happen. But it did, and it was impressive. Over the course of a week, nearly 100 of Dana's friends and family descended on Marrakech for the event. As they arrived, they met at Dana's riad for lunches and dinners and cocktails. And it all culminated on Saturday night, when everybody was instructed to turn up at Dana's around 8:00 dressed in a special local outfit that she provided to everybody.

We meet for cocktails and are driven to the outskirts of town. And when we arrive, we are met with one of the most spectacular settings you could ever imagine for a party.

Cocktail hour, part 2, takes place in front of the reflecting pool. From there, we are escorted to an Arab tent where dinner -- whole roast lamb -- is served. And then to a building beyond description for an open-air party and dancing. The pictures tell the story much better.

When I got back at 5am, I was exhausted.

In any case, a few observations:

1. Of everybody I know, Dana may be the only person who could possibly get 100 people to come from around the world to meet in Morocco for anything other than a wedding or a funeral.

2. The entire event was carefully and elegantly organised, and both the organisation and the setting made it extremely special.

3. To take on all of this, and still enjoy herself in the process, Dana shall be commended.

I was honoured to have been there and to take part in this special week.

Posted by ElectricOrange at 11:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)